Category: Uncategorized

If you have a lot of capital, you should mostly ignore conventional retirement advice. Your standard retirement planner assumes that you are going to build up a portfolio of assets over your working life, then liquidate that portfolio to fund your retirement. Because you will need to begin to liquidate at a certain date (say, … Continue reading “Why rich people should ignore conventional retirement advice”

Lately, have seen a bunch of vacant apartment buildings come on the market for sale. Normal investors don’t buy vacant buildings, because banks generally won’t lend on them. So, these vacant buildings are being marketed to cash buyers who would presumably renovate and re-tenant them. Since a sale strategy that dramatically limits the pool of … Continue reading “Why are there vacant buildings for sale?”

One of the mysteries of the present growth cycle is how rents have continued to grow at a rate exceeding wages. One partial / possible explanation is that, in contrast to previous growth cycles, the advent of US-based fracking has kept energy prices surprisingly low, leaving more cash in the pockets of potential renters. So, … Continue reading “Why we’re keeping an eye on oil pricing”

As we look at making deals late in this expansion phase, I have been doing a lot of thinking about what, exactly, we risk by buying high. After all, we are (effectively) permanent holders, so it’s not exactly clear why we should care about prices going down after we acquire an asset. But I am … Continue reading “Thinking through investing in a hot market”

…and we’re back. Have been getting a lot of questions re the high apartment vacancy rate in DTLA (about which Curbed wrote the other day). Here’s the situation: As usual for this stage of the cycle, developers have overbuilt downtown (they always do this, because DTLA is one of the few neighborhoods in which it is … Continue reading “Will the glut downtown affect Adaptive?”

Right now, as an investor, the key question is: “How much longer does the present growth cycle have to run?” If we’re approaching the end of this cycle, then investors ought to batten down the hatches, de-lever, horde cash, and get ready to bargain-hunt. If, on the other hand, we’re still looking at 2, 3, … Continue reading “Predicting the next recession”

Regular readers know that I approve all of our tenants personally. Why? Well, I’m the one who’s going to have to deal with going to eviction court if they turn out to be screw-ups, so it’s best that I sign off on them upfront. But there’s another reason, too: Reviewing all the tenant applications gives … Continue reading “Where our tenants are coming from”

Have been spending some time looking at new neighborhoods around LA for possible investments. Many of the areas I’m reviewing were developed later than the areas in which we’ve traditionally done business. Because they were developed later, when zoning codes were better established and enforced, the apartment buildings I’m reviewing tend to be grouped near … Continue reading “Why the zoning matters, even if you’re not building”

Was talking to someone yesterday regarding the frothy pricing in the LA market. She made the reasonable observation that pricing in big city markets seems to be on a long, one way rise. This is a version of an argument I hear a lot: Millennials don’t want to move to the suburbs, because they prefer city … Continue reading “The LAW has not been repealed”

Do you know who is in the cat bird seat right now? Entrepreneurs with retail concepts that require very large spaces and have the ability to drive customers themselves, without need for “walk-in” traffic. Why? Well, retailers are generally getting slaughtered right now; who wants to go to the mall when Amazon will deliver whatever … Continue reading “Who benefits from the demise of department stores?”