Right now, you need soft eyes
There are no perfect deals right now. Think about it: People don’t generally sell perfect buildings where everything is going great. They definitely don’t right now, when the alternative to owning the building is to hold the money in their money-market account earning 0.25%.
Does that mean you shouldn’t buy anything? No. There are definitely good deals to be done, both relative to the other stuff out there and also in absolute terms. Just yesterday I came across a fairly large, non-rent control deal that a savvy investor could get into for less than 9x the rent in a good area. That works out to a 6.7% cap, which is probably an 8+% / year cash-on-cash return with some decent leverage.
Is this deal being marketed as a 6.7% cap? Absolutely not. It’s more expensive than that on its existing rents. To understand its potential, you need to understand where the neighborhood is going and what you can do to improve the apartments and raise the rents.
In The Wire, McNulty and Bunk, two detectives, talk about having “soft eyes” when they look around a crime scene. What they’re referring to is the ability to avoid jumping to conclusions and to see all the different possibilities. That’s exactly what you need to do good deals now: soft eyes.